Federal Reserve Board releases the hypothetical scenarios for its annual stress test

　　The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday released the hypothetical scenarios for its annual stress test, which helps ensure that large banks can lend to households and businesses even in a severe recession. Additionally, for the first time, the Board released four hypothetical elements designed to probe different risks through its “exploratory analysis” of the banking system. The exploratory analysis will not affect bank capital requirements.

　　美联储周四发布了年度压力测试的假设情景，这有助于确保大型银行即使在严重衰退的情况下也能向家庭和企业提供贷款。此外，董事会首次发布了四个假设要素，旨在通过对银行体系的“探索性分析”来探究不同的风险。探索性分析不会影响银行资本要求。

　　The Board's annual stress test evaluates the resilience of large banks by estimating losses, net revenue, and capital levels—which provide a cushion against losses—under hypothetical recession scenarios that extend two years into the future. This year, 32 banks will be tested against a severe global recession with heightened stress in both commercial and residential real estate markets, as well as in corporate debt markets. The scenarios are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as predictions of future economic conditions.

　　委员会的年度压力测试通过估计未来两年的假设经济衰退情景下的损失、净收入和资本水平（为损失提供缓冲）来评估大型银行的弹性。今年，32 家银行将面临严重的全球经济衰退的考验，商业和住宅房地产市场以及企业债务市场的压力都会加大。这些情景不是预测，也不应被解释为对未来经济状况的预测。

　　In the 2024 stress test scenario, the U.S. unemployment rate rises nearly 6-1/2 percentage points, to a peak of 10 percent. The increase in the unemployment rate is accompanied by severe market volatility, a widening of corporate bond spreads, and a collapse in asset prices, including a 36 percent decline in house prices and a 40 percent decline in commercial real estate prices. Large banks with substantial trading or custodial operations are also required to incorporate a counterparty default scenario component to estimate and report potential losses and capital effects associated with the unexpected default of the firm's largest counterparty.

　　在2024年压力测试情景中，美国失业率将上升近6-1/2个百分点，达到10%的峰值。失业率上升伴随着市场剧烈波动、企业债券利差扩大、资产价格暴跌，其中房价下跌36%，商业地产价格下跌40%。拥有大量交易或托管业务的大型银行还需要纳入交易对手违约情景部分，以估计和报告与公司最大交易对手意外违约相关的潜在损失和资本影响。

　　In addition, banks with large trading operations will be tested against a global market shock component that primarily stresses their trading and related positions. The global market shock component is a set of hypothetical stresses to a large set of risk factors reflecting market distress and heightened uncertainty.

　　此外，拥有大量交易业务的银行将面临全球市场冲击因素的考验，这些因素主要强调其交易和相关头寸。全球市场冲击成分是对反映市场困境和不确定性加剧的大量风险因素的一系列假设压力。

　　The table below shows the components of the annual stress test that apply to each bank, based on data as of the third quarter of 2023.

　　下表显示了适用于每家银行的年度压力测试的组成部分，基于截至 2023 年第三季度的数据。

　　This year's exploratory analysis includes four separate hypothetical elements that will assess the resilience of the banking system to a wider range of risks. Two of the hypothetical elements include funding stresses that cause a rapid repricing of a large proportion of deposits at large banks. Each element has a different set of interest rate and economic conditions, including a moderate recession with increasing inflation and rising interest rates, and a severe global recession with high and persistent inflation and rising interest rates.

　　今年的探索性分析包括四个独立的假设要素，将评估银行体系应对更广泛风险的弹性。其中两个假设因素包括导致大型银行大部分存款迅速重新定价的融资压力。每个要素都有不同的利率和经济状况，包括伴随通货膨胀加剧和利率上升的温和衰退，以及伴随高且持续的通货膨胀和利率上升的严重全球衰退。

　　The other two elements of the exploratory analysis include two sets of market shocks that will be applied only to the largest and most complex banks. These shocks hypothesize the failure of five large hedge funds, with each under a different set of financial market conditions. Those conditions include expectations of reduced global economic activity with a negative outlook for long-term inflation, and expectations of severe recessions in the United States and other countries.

　　探索性分析的其他两个要素包括两组市场冲击，仅适用于最大和最复杂的银行。这些冲击假设了五家大型对冲基金的失败，每家基金都处于不同的金融市场条件下。这些条件包括对全球经济活动减少的预期以及长期通胀前景负面的预期，以及对美国和其他国家严重衰退的预期。

　　The exploratory analysis is distinct from the stress test and will explore additional hypothetical risks to the broader banking system, rather than focusing on firm-specific results. The Board will publish aggregate results alongside the annual stress test results in June 2024.

　　探索性分析与压力测试不同，它将探索更广泛的银行体系的额外假设风险，而不是关注公司特定的结果。董事会将于 2024 年 6 月发布汇总结果以及年度压力测试结果。

　　2024 Stress Test Banks1

　　2024 年压力测试银行1

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　　1. The information listed in this table is based on third quarter 2023 data. Return to text

　　银行受到全球市场冲击受交易对手违约影响盟友金融公司美国运通公司美国银行公司纽约梅隆银行公司巴克莱美国有限责任公司bmo 金融公司第一资本金融公司嘉信理财公司花旗集团公民金融集团有限公司瑞士信贷控股（美国）有限公司db美国公司探索金融服务第五第三银行高盛集团公司汇丰北美控股公司亨廷顿银行股份公司摩根大通公司科科公司m&t 银行公司摩根士丹利北方信托公司pnc 金融服务集团公司加拿大皇家银行美国集团控股有限责任公司地区金融公司桑坦德控股美国公司道富银行td集团美国控股有限责任公司信托金融公司瑞银美洲控股有限责任公司美国合众银行富国银行1. 本表所列信息基于2023年第三季度数据。返回正文