Is the A-share market at its lowest point? Insights from historical data and future projections.

　　On September 24,the A-share market exploded, with the Shanghai Composite Index soaring more than 4%, the largest single-day increase since 2021; the ChiNext Index soaring more than 5%, the second largest single-day increase since 2019. The Shenwan primary industry index rose across the board and multiple sector indices are increasing by more than 5%. Some institutions believe that the current A-share market may have bottomed out, and recommend actively paying attention to oversold low-valuation and steady growth targets.

　　Source: Tu Chong Creative

What to do after the big rise

　　Historical data also supports A-share reversal to a certain extent. According to statistics from Securities Times: Databao, after 2000, after the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 4% in a single day, it rose in the short and medium term. The average increase on the next day and the next five trading days were 0.44% and 0.9% respectively. The average increase within a year was more than 6%. From the perspective of winning rate, after the Shanghai Composite Index rises by more than 4%, the probability of rising the next day reaches 57.41%, the probability of rising in the next five trading days reaches 61.11%, and the possibility of rising within one year is also 50%.

　　Judging from the four historical bottoms since 2005, there have been many single-day index positive lines, thus establishing the bottom trend. For example, on June 8, 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 8%; on November 10, 2008, it increased by more than 7%; in 2013, there was a single-pin bottom trend of falling by nearly 6% and then turning red; in February 2019 It rose about 6% on the 25th.

　　Hong Hao, a chief economist of Sirui Group, also told a reporter from the Securities Times:

　　It is expected that A-shares will usher in a strong rebound, especially when policies such as swap lines and stock repurchases, holdings, and re-loans are introduced, which will bring the market to react enthusiastically .

The organization sees it this way.

　　Institutions believed that A-shares may have bottomed outwith the support of lower valuations and better-than-expected favorable policies. Chen Guo, a strategy analyst at CITIC Construction Investment, said the bottom has been established and the pullback is an opportunity. He believes that there are three main aspects of the factual impact of the policy combination of the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission. First, the market risk preference is improved; secondly, A-shares are expected to usher in a new batch of increments but require continuous observation. It will be a major benefit and promote a sharp rebound in A-shares if it can exceed 500 billion yuan. Finally, it is expected to boost residents consumption and ease the real estate chain. Pressure.

　　Some foreign-funded institutions are also optimistic about the positive effects of this policy. Morgan Asset Management believes that the continuous introduction of financial policies reflects a positive response to the current economic situation. Through major benefits, we aim to reduce the financing costs of the real economy, strengthen financial support for the real economy, stabilize the capital market, and provide support for the economy. Provide strong support for high-quality development.